How do you know if your email marketing is working?
Most marketers would answer, "Because I see lots of revenue attributed to medium=email in Google Analytics."
Last-click revenue in GA is an important measure to track, but it only tells one very narrow story about how email is impacting your business.
Why is it narrow, you ask? Because email is a channel that creates a ripple effect. In other words, the repercussions of sending great emails are not entirely measurable by a last-click attribution model.
For example, I open every email from Huckberry, have a connection to their brand, and regularly purchase. I have never clicked through one of their newsletters and purchased in a way that last-click attribution would capture. Email is the reason I buy, but last-click undervalues its importance to my customer experience.
Another example: A dormant customer reactivates after receiving a win-back email, makes a purchase, loves a new product, then subscribes 60 days later. The email channel should get attribution for the subscription, but it doesn't with last-click.
So we need a way to measure how much incremental revenue gets generated out in those distant ripples.
The tool for the job is called a control group. Choose a random subset of customers and purposely prevent them from getting your emails. Wait a few months, then measure the value of customers in the control group compared to the value of customers in the test group who were exposed to email.
You'll have a true understanding of incrementality. And an accurate answer as to what degree your emails are changing people's behavior.
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